Rankings · California Collegiate Athletic Association · Super Region 4

California State University, East Bay

Ranked 153rd of 202 D2 teams (likely between 111th and 176th) and 12th of 13 in the CCAA. <1% chance of making the NCAA tournament.

Record 2-6-2 (W-L-T) · 2-6-2 against D2 teams

Compare with another team

NCAA tournament chance

<1%

Very unlikely to make the NCAA tournament, even with 8 games against D2 teams left.

Rank

153 of 202

Likely between 111th and 176th

12th of 13 in the CCAA (likely 9th to 13th)

Rating

−0.51

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 0.5 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −1.02 to −0.04

Attack and defense

Attack +0.13: scores 0.13 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −0.66: concedes 0.66 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the CCAA tournament (the auto bid): <1% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 45.5, 45th of 52 in Super Region 4. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.3, so Cal St. East Bay is about 10.7 short. Super Region 4 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	18%	under 5%
1	28%	under 5%
2	28%	under 5%
3	16%	under 5%
4	6%	under 5%
5	2%	–
6	under 1%	–
7	under 1%	–
8 (all)	under 1%	under 5%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Cal St. East Bay wins all 8: its NPI clears the cut line in 1% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Cal St. East Bay likely (8 in 10) ranks between 111th and 176th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 2 v UC Merced W 40% · T 22% · L 38% likeliest 1–1 · compare

Oct 4 v Stanislaus St. W 24% · T 20% · L 56% likeliest 1–2 · compare

Oct 9 at Cal State LA W 8% · T 13% · L 79% likeliest 0–2 · compare

Oct 11 at Cal St. Dom. Hills W 15% · T 15% · L 70% likeliest 1–2 · compare

Oct 17 v Cal Poly Pomona W 21% · T 18% · L 61% likeliest 1–2 · compare

Oct 22 v Cal St. San Marcos W 30% · T 19% · L 51% likeliest 1–2 · compare

Oct 25 at Cal St. Monterey Bay W 22% · T 16% · L 62% likeliest 1–2 · compare

Oct 29 v CSUSB W 15% · T 17% · L 68% likeliest 1–2 · compare

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 27 v Fresno Pacific W 3–2 Rating +0.05

Sep 25 at Menlo L 1–4 Rating −0.09

Sep 20 at Cal Poly Humboldt W 4–1 Rating +0.11

Sep 18 at Chico St. T 1–1 Rating +0.05

Sep 12 at Vanguard L 2–3 Rating −0.02

Sep 9 at Westmont L 2–3 Rating −0.01

Sep 6 v Cal St. Monterey Bay L 1–7 Rating −0.24

Sep 2 v Dominican (CA) T 2–2 Rating +0.01

Aug 29 at UT Dallas L 1–3 Rating −0.03

Aug 27 v Midwestern St. L 0–5 Rating −0.11