Rankings · California Collegiate Athletic Association · Super Region 4
California State University, Dominguez Hills
Ranked 45th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 21st and 95th) and 4th of 13 in the CCAA. 13% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the CCAA tournament.
NCAA tournament chance
13%
Most of its chance comes from winning the CCAA tournament (the auto bid).
Top-four seed in Super Region 4 (first chance to host games): <1%
Rank
45 of 202
Likely between 21st and 95th
4th of 13 in the CCAA (likely 2nd to 8th)
Rating
+0.54
Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.5 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range +0.13 to +0.95
Attack and defense
Attack +0.34: scores 0.34 more goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense +0.19: concedes 0.19 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the CCAA tournament (the auto bid): 12% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 1% chance. NPI now 51.7, 26th of 52 in Super Region 4. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.3, so Cal St. Dom. Hills is about 4.6 short. Super Region 4 has 5 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | – |
| 1 | 10% | about 5% |
| 2 | 23% | about 10% |
| 3 | 32% | about 15% |
| 4 | 20% | about 15% |
| 5 | 10% | about 25% |
| 6 | 3% | about 25% |
| 7 (all) | under 1% | about 85% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If Cal St. Dom. Hills wins all 7: its NPI clears the cut line in 84% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. Cal St. Dom. Hills likely (8 in 10) ranks between 21st and 95th.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.