Rankings · California Collegiate Athletic Association · Super Region 4

Fresno Pacific University

Ranked 107th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 57th and 145th) and 9th of 13 in the CCAA. 2% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the CCAA tournament.

Record 4-5-1 (W-L-T) · 3-5-1 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

Most of its chance comes from winning the CCAA tournament (the auto bid).

Rank

107 of 202

Likely between 57th and 145th

9th of 13 in the CCAA (likely 5th to 11th)

Rating

+0.03

About level with an average D2 team, on a neutral field.

Likely range −0.44 to +0.47

Attack and defense

Attack +0.18: scores 0.18 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −0.13: concedes 0.13 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the CCAA tournament (the auto bid): 2% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 47.4, 39th of 52 in Super Region 4. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.3, so Fresno Pacific is about 8.8 short. Super Region 4 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	4%	under 5%
1	16%	under 5%
2	26%	under 5%
3	26%	under 5%
4	19%	under 5%
5	7%	under 5%
6	2%	–
7	under 1%	–
8 (all)	under 1%	about 15%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Fresno Pacific wins all 8: its NPI clears the cut line in 13% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Fresno Pacific likely (8 in 10) ranks between 57th and 145th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 v Menlo W 43% · T 21% · L 35% likeliest 1–1

Oct 9 v Chico St. W 44% · T 23% · L 33% likeliest 1–1

Oct 11 at CSUSB W 16% · T 20% · L 64% likeliest 0–2

Oct 15 at Cal St. Monterey Bay W 32% · T 20% · L 48% likeliest 1–2

Oct 17 v Cal Poly Humboldt W 68% · T 17% · L 15% likeliest 2–1

Oct 23 at Cal Poly Pomona W 22% · T 20% · L 58% likeliest 1–2

Oct 25 at Cal State LA W 14% · T 19% · L 67% likeliest 0–2

Oct 29 v Stanislaus St. W 33% · T 24% · L 44% likeliest 1–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Oct 1 v Cal St. Dom. Hills L 1–2 Rating −0.02

Sep 27 at Cal St. East Bay L 2–3 Rating −0.07

Sep 20 at UC Merced W 2–1 Rating +0.03

Sep 18 v Cal St. San Marcos L 1–2 Rating −0.04

Sep 12 v CUI L 2–3 Rating −0.07

Sep 9 v Pacific Union · not a D2 team, not rated W 8–0

Sep 5 v Dominican (CA) T 2–2 Rating −0.02

Sep 2 v CSUSB L 0–1 Rating +0.00

Aug 29 at Menlo W 3–0 Rating +0.13

Aug 27 v Cal Poly Humboldt W 4–1 Rating +0.05