Rankings · Pacific West Conference · Super Region 4

Dominican University of California

Ranked 124th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 76th and 161st) and 6th of 10 in the PacWest. 7% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the PacWest tournament.

Record 1-3-4 (W-L-T) · 1-3-4 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

Most of its chance comes from winning the PacWest tournament (the auto bid).

Top-four seed in Super Region 4 (first chance to host games): <1%

Rank

124 of 202

Likely between 76th and 161st

6th of 10 in the PacWest (likely 3rd to 8th)

Rating

−0.15

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 0.2 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −0.69 to +0.29

Attack and defense

Attack +0.16: scores 0.16 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −0.34: concedes 0.34 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the PacWest tournament (the auto bid): 7% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 46.0, 42nd of 52 in Super Region 4. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.3, so Dominican (CA) is about 10.3 short. Super Region 4 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	1%	–
1	7%	under 5%
2	15%	about 5%
3	24%	under 5%
4	28%	about 5%
5	16%	about 10%
6	6%	about 25%
7	2%	–
8 (all)	under 1%	under 5%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Dominican (CA) wins all 8: its NPI would still fall short of the cut line, so it would also need to win the PacWest tournament.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Dominican (CA) likely (8 in 10) ranks between 76th and 161st.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 7 v Biola W 42% · T 22% · L 36% likeliest 1–1

Oct 10 v Point Loma W 22% · T 18% · L 60% likeliest 1–2

Oct 14 v CUI W 37% · T 20% · L 43% likeliest 1–1

Oct 16 v Vanguard W 47% · T 21% · L 32% likeliest 1–1

Oct 21 at Chaminade W 65% · T 18% · L 16% likeliest 2–0

Oct 24 at Hawaii Pacific W 42% · T 21% · L 37% likeliest 1–1

Oct 26 at Hawaii Hilo W 24% · T 21% · L 55% likeliest 1–1

Oct 31 v Jessup W 74% · T 14% · L 13% likeliest 2–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 26 at Westmont T 2–2 Rating +0.02

Sep 22 at Jessup W 5–1 Rating +0.11

Sep 12 at Stanislaus St. L 0–2 Rating −0.03

Sep 10 v Chico St. L 0–1 Rating −0.03

Sep 5 at Fresno Pacific T 2–2 Rating +0.03

Sep 2 at Cal St. East Bay T 2–2 Rating −0.00

Aug 29 at UC Merced T 1–1 Rating +0.02

Aug 27 at Cal St. Monterey Bay L 3–4 Rating −0.04