Rankings · Pacific West Conference · Super Region 4

Point Loma Nazarene University

Ranked 19th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 8th and 64th) and 1st of 10 in the PacWest. 36% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the PacWest tournament.

Record 4-3-3 (W-L-T) · 4-3-3 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

36%

Most of its chance comes from winning the PacWest tournament (the auto bid).

Top-four seed in Super Region 4 (first chance to host games): <1%

Rank

19 of 202

Likely between 8th and 64th

1st of 10 in the PacWest (likely 1st to 2nd)

Rating

+0.87

Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.9 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range +0.42 to +1.33

Attack and defense

Attack +0.67: scores 0.67 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense +0.22: concedes 0.22 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the PacWest tournament (the auto bid): 36% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 52.0, 21st of 52 in Super Region 4. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.3, so Point Loma is about 4.2 short. Super Region 4 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	under 1%	–
1	2%	–
2	7%	about 15%
3	16%	about 25%
4	26%	about 30%
5	27%	about 45%
6	17%	about 50%
7 (all)	5%	about 20%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Point Loma wins all 7: its NPI clears the cut line in 19% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Point Loma likely (8 in 10) ranks between 8th and 64th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 v Hawaii Hilo W 54% · T 22% · L 24% likeliest 1–1

Oct 8 at Jessup W 83% · T 10% · L 7% likeliest 3–0

Oct 10 at Dominican (CA) W 60% · T 18% · L 22% likeliest 2–1

Oct 17 at Biola W 55% · T 21% · L 24% likeliest 1–1

Oct 21 v Vanguard W 71% · T 16% · L 14% likeliest 2–1

Oct 24 v CUI W 61% · T 18% · L 21% likeliest 2–1

Oct 31 at Westmont W 59% · T 18% · L 23% likeliest 2–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 26 v Hawaii Pacific L 1–2 Rating −0.13

Sep 24 v Chaminade W 3–1 Rating −0.04

Sep 19 v Westmont T 2–2 Rating −0.06

Sep 17 at Vanguard W 4–2 Rating +0.04

Sep 12 v Cal St. Monterey Bay W 4–2 Rating +0.03

Sep 9 at Cal St. Dom. Hills T 1–1 Rating +0.00

Sep 5 at Seattle Pacific L 0–1 Rating −0.02

Sep 3 at Western Wash. L 1–2 Rating −0.07

Aug 29 v Cal Poly Pomona W 2–0 Rating +0.06

Aug 27 v CSUSB T 1–1 Rating −0.00