Rankings · Pacific West Conference · Super Region 4

Jessup University

Ranked 191st of 202 D2 teams (likely between 169th and 197th) and 10th of 10 in the PacWest. <1% chance of making the NCAA tournament.

Record 2-5-1 (W-L-T) · 1-5-0 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

<1%

Very unlikely to make the NCAA tournament, even with 9 games against D2 teams left.

Rank

191 of 202

Likely between 169th and 197th

10th of 10 in the PacWest (likely 9th to 10th)

Rating

−1.41

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 1.4 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −2.08 to −0.85

Attack and defense

Attack −0.39: scores 0.39 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −1.01: concedes 1.01 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the PacWest tournament (the auto bid): <1% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 40.8, 48th of 52 in Super Region 4. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.3, so Jessup is about 15.5 short. Super Region 4 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 9 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	24%	under 5%
1	31%	under 5%
2	27%	under 5%
3	14%	under 5%
4	4%	under 5%
5	1%	–
6	under 1%	–
7	under 1%	–
8	under 1%	–
9 (all)	under 1%	under 5%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Jessup wins all 9: its NPI would still fall short of the cut line, so it would also need to win the PacWest tournament.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Jessup likely (8 in 10) ranks between 169th and 197th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 at Westmont W 12% · T 13% · L 75% likeliest 1–3

Oct 8 v Point Loma W 7% · T 10% · L 83% likeliest 0–3

Oct 10 v Biola W 18% · T 19% · L 63% likeliest 1–2

Oct 14 v Vanguard W 21% · T 19% · L 60% likeliest 1–2

Oct 16 v CUI W 14% · T 15% · L 71% likeliest 1–2

Oct 21 at Hawaii Hilo W 8% · T 13% · L 78% likeliest 0–2

Oct 24 at Chaminade W 38% · T 24% · L 38% likeliest 1–1

Oct 27 at Hawaii Pacific W 17% · T 17% · L 65% likeliest 1–2

Oct 31 at Dominican (CA) W 13% · T 14% · L 74% likeliest 1–2

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 22 v Dominican (CA) L 1–5 Rating −0.24

Sep 19 at UC Santa Cruz · not a D2 team, not rated W 2–1

Sep 12 v UC Merced L 1–3 Rating −0.12

Sep 10 v Menlo L 0–3 Rating −0.09

Sep 5 v Cal Poly Humboldt W 2–1 Rating +0.08

Sep 3 at Cal St. Monterey Bay L 1–3 Rating +0.04

Aug 29 at Simpson (CA) · not a D2 team, not rated T 0–0

Aug 27 v Cal St. San Marcos L 0–1 Rating +0.16