Rankings · California Collegiate Athletic Association · Super Region 4

California State University, San Marcos

Ranked 89th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 44th and 133rd) and 6th of 13 in the CCAA. 6% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the CCAA tournament.

Record 6-3-1 (W-L-T) · 6-3-1 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

Most of its chance comes from winning the CCAA tournament (the auto bid).

Top-four seed in Super Region 4 (first chance to host games): <1%

Rank

89 of 202

Likely between 44th and 133rd

6th of 13 in the CCAA (likely 4th to 10th)

Rating

+0.18

Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.2 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −0.29 to +0.63

Attack and defense

Attack +0.24: scores 0.24 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −0.07: concedes 0.07 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the CCAA tournament (the auto bid): 5% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 1% chance. NPI now 53.4, 16th of 52 in Super Region 4. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.3, so Cal St. San Marcos is about 2.9 short. Super Region 4 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	2%	–
1	10%	under 5%
2	25%	under 5%
3	32%	about 5%
4	20%	about 5%
5	9%	about 10%
6	2%	–
7 (all)	under 1%	about 95%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Cal St. San Marcos wins all 7: its NPI clears the cut line in 93% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Cal St. San Marcos likely (8 in 10) ranks between 44th and 133rd.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 9 v Cal Poly Humboldt W 71% · T 16% · L 13% likeliest 2–0

Oct 11 at Cal State LA W 16% · T 20% · L 64% likeliest 0–1

Oct 15 v Chico St. W 47% · T 23% · L 30% likeliest 1–1

Oct 18 at Cal St. Dom. Hills W 26% · T 21% · L 54% likeliest 1–1

Oct 22 at Cal St. East Bay W 51% · T 19% · L 30% likeliest 2–1

Oct 22 v Azusa Pacific Not ratednot a D2 team, not rated

Oct 24 at UC Merced W 43% · T 24% · L 33% likeliest 1–1

Oct 29 v Cal Poly Pomona W 33% · T 23% · L 45% likeliest 1–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Oct 1 at Menlo L 3–5 Rating −0.09

Sep 27 v Stanislaus St. W 3–1 Rating +0.09

Sep 25 v Cal St. Monterey Bay W 4–0 Rating +0.16

Sep 20 v CSUSB L 1–4 Rating −0.10

Sep 18 at Fresno Pacific W 2–1 Rating +0.05

Sep 14 v Westmont T 2–2 Rating −0.01

Sep 12 at Biola W 2–1 Rating +0.04

Sep 3 at Vanguard W 3–0 Rating +0.11

Aug 29 at CUI L 2–3 Rating −0.02

Aug 27 at Jessup W 1–0 Rating +0.01