Rankings · Great American Conference · Super Region 3

Southern Nazarene University

Ranked 73rd of 202 D2 teams (likely between 35th and 120th) and 3rd of 7 in the GAC. 10% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the GAC tournament.

Record 5-3-1 (W-L-T) · 5-3-1 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

10%

Most of its chance comes from winning the GAC tournament (the auto bid).

Top-four seed in Super Region 3 (first chance to host games): <1%

Rank

73 of 202

Likely between 35th and 120th

3rd of 7 in the GAC (likely 3rd to 4th)

Rating

+0.31

Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.3 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −0.13 to +0.74

Attack and defense

Attack +0.21: scores 0.21 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense +0.10: concedes 0.10 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the GAC tournament (the auto bid): 8% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 3% chance. NPI now 53.0, 16th of 40 in Super Region 3. The last at-large team usually ends on about 54.5, so Southern Nazarene is about 1.5 short. Super Region 3 has 6 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	1%	–
1	6%	under 5%
2	19%	about 5%
3	27%	about 5%
4	25%	about 5%
5	15%	about 15%
6	5%	about 40%
7	1%	–
8 (all)	under 1%	over 99%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Southern Nazarene wins all 8: it makes the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, even without the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Southern Nazarene likely (8 in 10) ranks between 35th and 120th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 at Newman W 47% · T 23% · L 31% likeliest 1–1

Oct 8 v Rogers St. W 25% · T 23% · L 52% likeliest 1–1

Oct 10 at Harding W 74% · T 15% · L 11% likeliest 2–0

Oct 14 at Ouachita Baptist W 55% · T 26% · L 19% likeliest 1–0

Oct 17 v Northeastern St. W 52% · T 23% · L 26% likeliest 1–1

Oct 22 at Rogers St. W 18% · T 21% · L 61% likeliest 0–1

Oct 29 at Fort Hays St. W 12% · T 18% · L 70% likeliest 0–2

Oct 31 v Newman W 56% · T 21% · L 23% likeliest 1–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Oct 1 v Fort Hays St. L 0–3 Rating −0.08

Sep 23 at Northeastern St. T 3–3 Rating −0.02

Sep 19 v Ouachita Baptist W 1–0 Rating +0.00

Sep 17 v Harding W 3–1 Rating −0.02

Sep 13 at Okla. Christian W 2–1 Rating +0.05

Sep 10 at Midwestern St. L 1–3 Rating −0.01

Sep 5 v West Tex. A&M W 1–0 Rating +0.00

Aug 29 at McKendree W 2–1 Rating +0.05

Aug 27 v Maryville (MO) L 0–2 Rating −0.06