Rankings · Great American Conference · Super Region 3

Ouachita Baptist University

Ranked 161st of 202 D2 teams (likely between 130th and 177th) and 6th of 7 in the GAC. 1% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the GAC tournament.

Record 5-3-1 (W-L-T) · 3-3-1 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

Most of its chance comes from winning the GAC tournament (the auto bid).

Rank

161 of 202

Likely between 130th and 177th

6th of 7 in the GAC (likely 5th to 6th)

Rating

−0.61

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 0.6 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −1.02 to −0.25

Attack and defense

Attack −0.65: scores 0.65 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense +0.03: concedes 0.03 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the GAC tournament (the auto bid): 1% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 48.7, 24th of 40 in Super Region 3. The last at-large team usually ends on about 54.5, so Ouachita Baptist is about 5.8 short. Super Region 3 has 6 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	13%	under 5%
1	31%	under 5%
2	34%	under 5%
3	15%	under 5%
4	6%	under 5%
5	2%	–
6	under 1%	–
7	under 1%	–
8 (all)	under 1%	about 100%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Ouachita Baptist wins all 8: its NPI clears the cut line in 98% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Ouachita Baptist likely (8 in 10) ranks between 130th and 177th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 v Rogers St. W 10% · T 21% · L 69% likeliest 0–1

Oct 8 at Harding W 41% · T 28% · L 31% likeliest 1–0

Oct 14 v Southern Nazarene W 19% · T 26% · L 55% likeliest 0–1

Oct 17 v Harding W 50% · T 27% · L 24% likeliest 1–0

Oct 22 at Fort Hays St. W 4% · T 15% · L 81% likeliest 0–2

Oct 24 at Newman W 21% · T 26% · L 53% likeliest 0–1

Oct 29 v Northeastern St. W 24% · T 29% · L 47% likeliest 0–1

Oct 31 at Rogers St. W 7% · T 17% · L 76% likeliest 0–2

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 30 at Northeastern St. W 2–1 Rating +0.05

Sep 26 v Fort Hays St. L 0–1 Rating +0.05

Sep 24 v Newman W 1–0 Rating +0.07

Sep 19 at Southern Nazarene L 0–1 Rating +0.03

Sep 9 at Hendrix · not a D2 team, not rated W 3–0

Sep 5 v DBU L 1–3 Rating −0.11

Sep 1 v Delta St. T 0–0 Rating +0.03

Aug 29 v Ecclesia · not a D2 team, not rated W 5–0

Aug 27 v Union (TN) W 1–0 Rating +0.06