Rankings · Great American Conference · Super Region 3

Harding University

Ranked 192nd of 202 D2 teams (likely between 175th and 197th) and 7th of 7 in the GAC. <1% chance of making the NCAA tournament.

Record 0-10-0 (W-L-T) · 0-10-0 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

<1%

Very unlikely to make the NCAA tournament, even with 8 games against D2 teams left.

Rank

192 of 202

Likely between 175th and 197th

7th of 7 in the GAC (likely 7th to 7th)

Rating

−1.52

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 1.5 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −2.05 to −0.98

Attack and defense

Attack −0.43: scores 0.43 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −1.09: concedes 1.09 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the GAC tournament (the auto bid): <1% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 36.9, 40th of 40 in Super Region 3. The last at-large team usually ends on about 54.5, so Harding is about 17.6 short. Super Region 3 has 6 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	33%	under 5%
1	38%	under 5%
2	20%	under 5%
3	7%	under 5%
4	2%	–
5	under 1%	–
6	under 1%	–
7	under 1%	–
8 (all)	under 1%	under 5%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Harding wins all 8: its NPI would still fall short of the cut line, so it would also need to win the GAC tournament.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Harding likely (8 in 10) ranks between 175th and 197th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 at Northeastern St. W 11% · T 15% · L 74% likeliest 0–2

Oct 8 v Ouachita Baptist W 31% · T 28% · L 41% likeliest 0–1

Oct 10 v Southern Nazarene W 11% · T 15% · L 74% likeliest 0–2

Oct 17 at Ouachita Baptist W 24% · T 27% · L 50% likeliest 0–1

Oct 22 at Newman W 13% · T 15% · L 72% likeliest 0–2

Oct 24 at Fort Hays St. W 1% · T 4% · L 94% likeliest 0–4

Oct 29 v Rogers St. W 5% · T 9% · L 87% likeliest 0–3

Oct 31 v Northeastern St. W 17% · T 18% · L 65% likeliest 1–2

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Oct 1 at Rogers St. L 0–7 Rating −0.23

Sep 26 v Newman L 0–2 Rating −0.01

Sep 24 v Fort Hays St. L 0–2 Rating +0.10

Sep 20 at West Ala. L 2–8 Rating −0.29

Sep 17 at Southern Nazarene L 1–3 Rating +0.01

Sep 15 at William Jewell L 0–2 Rating −0.01

Sep 7 at Tampa L 0–2 Rating +0.04

Sep 4 v Christian Brothers L 1–2 Rating +0.02

Sep 3 v DBU L 0–2 Rating −0.01

Aug 27 v Delta St. L 0–1 Rating −0.01