Rankings · Great American Conference · Super Region 3

Newman University

Ranked 128th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 87th and 162nd) and 5th of 7 in the GAC. 2% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the GAC tournament.

Record 3-7-0 (W-L-T) · 3-7-0 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

Most of its chance comes from winning the GAC tournament (the auto bid).

Rank

128 of 202

Likely between 87th and 162nd

5th of 7 in the GAC (likely 4th to 6th)

Rating

−0.22

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 0.2 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −0.70 to +0.18

Attack and defense

Attack −0.03: scores 0.03 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −0.20: concedes 0.20 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the GAC tournament (the auto bid): 2% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 44.4, 36th of 40 in Super Region 3. The last at-large team usually ends on about 54.5, so Newman is about 10.1 short. Super Region 3 has 6 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 8 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	4%	under 5%
1	21%	under 5%
2	30%	under 5%
3	28%	under 5%
4	12%	about 5%
5	4%	about 5%
6	1%	–
7	under 1%	–
8 (all)	under 1%	under 5%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Newman wins all 8: its NPI clears the cut line in 4% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Newman likely (8 in 10) ranks between 87th and 162nd.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 v Southern Nazarene W 31% · T 23% · L 47% likeliest 1–1

Oct 8 at Fort Hays St. W 7% · T 13% · L 80% likeliest 0–2

Oct 10 at Northeastern St. W 30% · T 23% · L 47% likeliest 1–1

Oct 15 at Rogers St. W 11% · T 16% · L 73% likeliest 0–2

Oct 17 v Fort Hays St. W 10% · T 17% · L 73% likeliest 0–2

Oct 22 v Harding W 72% · T 15% · L 13% likeliest 2–0

Oct 24 v Ouachita Baptist W 53% · T 26% · L 21% likeliest 1–0

Oct 31 at Southern Nazarene W 23% · T 21% · L 56% likeliest 1–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 26 at Harding W 2–0 Rating +0.04

Sep 24 at Ouachita Baptist L 0–1 Rating −0.04

Sep 19 v Rogers St. L 0–3 Rating −0.07

Sep 17 v Northeastern St. W 1–0 Rating +0.06

Sep 12 at West Tex. A&M L 0–1 Rating −0.02

Sep 10 at Lubbock Christian L 1–3 Rating −0.07

Sep 5 at CSU Pueblo L 1–4 Rating −0.07

Sep 2 at Okla. Christian L 1–3 Rating −0.07

Aug 29 at Rockhurst L 1–2 Rating −0.00

Aug 27 at William Jewell W 2–0 Rating +0.08