Rankings · Great American Conference · Super Region 3
Fort Hays State University
Ranked 6th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 3rd and 20th) and 1st of 7 in the GAC. 95% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the GAC tournament.
NCAA tournament chance
95%
Most of its chance comes from winning the GAC tournament (the auto bid).
Top-four seed in Super Region 3 (first chance to host games): 62%
Rank
6 of 202
Likely between 3rd and 20th
1st of 7 in the GAC (likely 1st to 2nd)
Rating
+1.38
Would beat an average D2 team by about 1.4 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range +0.98 to +1.82
Attack and defense
Attack +0.69: scores 0.69 more goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense +0.70: concedes 0.70 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the GAC tournament (the auto bid): 58% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 37% chance. NPI now 57.1, 5th of 40 in Super Region 3. The last at-large team usually ends on about 54.5, so Fort Hays St. is about 2.6 above it. Super Region 3 has 6 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | under 1% | – |
| 1 | under 1% | – |
| 2 | 2% | – |
| 3 | 7% | about 75% |
| 4 | 21% | about 90% |
| 5 | 32% | about 100% |
| 6 | 29% | over 99% |
| 7 (all) | 9% | over 99% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If Fort Hays St. wins all 7: it makes the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, even without the conference title.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. Fort Hays St. likely (8 in 10) ranks between 3rd and 20th.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.