Rankings · Peach Belt Conference · Super Region 2

University of South Carolina Aiken

Ranked 174th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 144th and 187th) and 6th of 7 in the Peach Belt. 0% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the Peach Belt tournament.

Record 3-5-0 (W-L-T) · 3-5-0 against D2 teams

Compare with another team

NCAA tournament chance

Most of its chance comes from winning the Peach Belt tournament (the auto bid).

Rank

174 of 202

Likely between 144th and 187th

6th of 7 in the Peach Belt (likely 5th to 7th)

Rating

−0.87

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 0.9 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −1.41 to −0.42

Attack and defense

Attack −0.35: scores 0.35 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −0.53: concedes 0.53 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the Peach Belt tournament (the auto bid): 0% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 47.3, 39th of 57 in Super Region 2. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.1, so USC Aiken is about 8.8 short. Super Region 2 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 6 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	21%	under 5%
1	42%	under 5%
2	25%	under 5%
3	10%	under 5%
4	2%	–
5	under 1%	–
6 (all)	under 1%	under 5%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If USC Aiken wins all 6: its NPI clears the cut line in 1% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. USC Aiken likely (8 in 10) ranks between 144th and 187th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 v North Georgia W 12% · T 15% · L 73% likeliest 0–2 · compare

Oct 7 v Middle Georgia W 51% · T 20% · L 28% likeliest 2–1 · compare

Oct 14 at Flagler W 8% · T 13% · L 78% likeliest 0–2 · compare

Oct 17 v Clayton St. W 14% · T 16% · L 70% likeliest 0–2 · compare

Oct 21 v Lander W 19% · T 21% · L 61% likeliest 0–1 · compare

Oct 24 at Ga. Southwestern W 25% · T 23% · L 52% likeliest 1–1 · compare

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 30 at Lander W 2–1 Rating +0.12

Sep 26 v Ga. Southwestern W 1–0 Rating +0.12

Sep 23 at Clayton St. L 0–4 Rating −0.07

Sep 19 at Middle Georgia L 1–3 Rating −0.09

Sep 16 v Flagler L 1–2 Rating +0.04

Sep 12 at North Georgia L 0–2 Rating +0.06

Sep 1 v Erskine W 4–2 Rating −0.00

Aug 27 at Southern Wesleyan L 0–4 Rating −0.15