Rankings · Peach Belt Conference · Super Region 2

Flagler College

Ranked 31st of 202 D2 teams (likely between 16th and 82nd) and 2nd of 7 in the Peach Belt. 54% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the Peach Belt tournament.

Record 5-1-4 (W-L-T) · 5-1-4 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

54%

Most of its chance comes from winning the Peach Belt tournament (the auto bid).

Top-four seed in Super Region 2 (first chance to host games): 12%

Rank

31 of 202

Likely between 16th and 82nd

2nd of 7 in the Peach Belt (likely 1st to 4th)

Rating

+0.66

Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.7 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range +0.24 to +1.06

Attack and defense

Attack +0.43: scores 0.43 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense +0.23: concedes 0.23 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the Peach Belt tournament (the auto bid): 34% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 20% chance. NPI now 57.0, 10th of 57 in Super Region 2. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.1, so Flagler is about 1.0 above it. Super Region 2 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	under 1%	–
1	3%	about 25%
2	11%	about 25%
3	24%	about 35%
4	30%	about 55%
5	20%	about 70%
6	11%	about 95%
7 (all)	1%	over 99%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Flagler wins all 7: it makes the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, even without the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Flagler likely (8 in 10) ranks between 16th and 82nd.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 at Clayton St. W 35% · T 22% · L 43% likeliest 1–1

Oct 7 v Ga. Southwestern W 69% · T 18% · L 14% likeliest 2–0

Oct 10 at North Georgia W 33% · T 22% · L 45% likeliest 1–1

Oct 14 v USC Aiken W 78% · T 13% · L 8% likeliest 2–0

Oct 17 v Middle Georgia W 86% · T 8% · L 5% likeliest 3–0

Oct 21 at Embry-Riddle (FL) W 54% · T 23% · L 23% likeliest 1–1

Oct 24 at Lander W 42% · T 24% · L 34% likeliest 1–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 30 at Middle Georgia W 2–1 Rating −0.05

Sep 26 v Lander W 1–0 Rating +0.01

Sep 23 at Fla. Southern L 1–4 Rating −0.09

Sep 19 v North Georgia T 3–3 Rating −0.00

Sep 16 at USC Aiken W 2–1 Rating −0.01

Sep 12 v Clayton St. W 3–1 Rating +0.06

Sep 9 at Ga. Southwestern W 2–0 Rating +0.03

Sep 5 v Barry T 2–2 Rating −0.02

Sep 1 at Rollins T 2–2 Rating +0.00

Aug 27 at Francis Marion T 1–1 Rating +0.01