Rankings · Sunshine State Conference · Super Region 2

Rollins College

Ranked 42nd of 202 D2 teams (likely between 14th and 103rd) and 4th of 11 in the Sunshine State. 12% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the Sunshine State tournament.

Record 4-3-1 (W-L-T) · 4-3-1 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

12%

Most of its chance comes from winning the Sunshine State tournament (the auto bid).

Top-four seed in Super Region 2 (first chance to host games): 3%

Rank

42 of 202

Likely between 14th and 103rd

4th of 11 in the Sunshine State (likely 2nd to 8th)

Rating

+0.57

Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.6 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range +0.04 to +1.13

Attack and defense

Attack +0.66: scores 0.66 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −0.09: concedes 0.09 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the Sunshine State tournament (the auto bid): 8% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 4% chance. NPI now 55.0, 14th of 57 in Super Region 2. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.1, so Rollins is about 1.0 short. Super Region 2 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	1%	–
1	9%	under 5%
2	18%	under 5%
3	25%	about 5%
4	25%	about 10%
5	17%	about 30%
6	4%	about 55%
7 (all)	1%	over 99%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Rollins wins all 7: it makes the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, even without the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Rollins likely (8 in 10) ranks between 14th and 103rd.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 v Fla. Southern W 43% · T 21% · L 36% likeliest 1–1

Oct 10 at Barry W 41% · T 20% · L 38% likeliest 1–1

Oct 14 v Nova Southeastern W 61% · T 17% · L 22% likeliest 2–1

Oct 17 at Eckerd W 67% · T 17% · L 16% likeliest 2–1

Oct 21 v Florida Tech W 36% · T 23% · L 41% likeliest 1–1

Oct 24 at North Georgia W 29% · T 19% · L 52% likeliest 1–2

Oct 29 v Saint Leo W 54% · T 19% · L 27% likeliest 2–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 30 at Lynn L 0–3 Rating −0.09

Sep 23 at Embry-Riddle (FL) W 1–0 Rating +0.01

Sep 19 v Palm Beach Atl. W 1–0 Rating +0.06

Sep 12 at Tampa L 0–2 Rating −0.10

Sep 9 v Embry-Riddle (FL) L 1–2 Rating −0.10

Sep 1 v Flagler T 2–2 Rating +0.00

Aug 29 v Emory & Henry W 2–1 Rating +0.03

Aug 27 v Lenoir-Rhyne W 6–5 Rating +0.00