Rankings · South Atlantic Conference · Super Region 2
Lenoir-Rhyne University
Ranked 108th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 57th and 145th) and 9th of 11 in the SAC. 2% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the SAC tournament.
NCAA tournament chance
2%
Most of its chance comes from winning the SAC tournament (the auto bid).
Rank
108 of 202
Likely between 57th and 145th
9th of 11 in the SAC (likely 4th to 10th)
Rating
+0.03
About level with an average D2 team, on a neutral field.
Likely range −0.44 to +0.47
Attack and defense
Attack +0.20: scores 0.20 more goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense −0.18: concedes 0.18 more goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the SAC tournament (the auto bid): 2% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 46.5, 40th of 57 in Super Region 2. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.1, so Lenoir-Rhyne is about 9.6 short. Super Region 2 has 5 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 5 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16% | under 5% |
| 1 | 34% | under 5% |
| 2 | 31% | under 5% |
| 3 | 14% | under 5% |
| 4 | 4% | about 10% |
| 5 (all) | 0% | under 5% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If Lenoir-Rhyne wins all 5: its NPI would still fall short of the cut line, so it would also need to win the SAC tournament.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. Lenoir-Rhyne likely (8 in 10) ranks between 57th and 145th.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.