Rankings · South Atlantic Conference · Super Region 2

Tusculum University

Ranked 146th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 110th and 169th) and 10th of 11 in the SAC. 0% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the SAC tournament.

Record 1-5-1 (W-L-T) · 1-5-1 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

Most of its chance comes from winning the SAC tournament (the auto bid).

Rank

146 of 202

Likely between 110th and 169th

10th of 11 in the SAC (likely 8th to 11th)

Rating

−0.40

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 0.4 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −0.84 to −0.03

Attack and defense

Attack −0.35: scores 0.35 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −0.04: concedes 0.04 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the SAC tournament (the auto bid): 0% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 45.5, 46th of 57 in Super Region 2. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.1, so Tusculum is about 10.6 short. Super Region 2 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 6 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	18%	under 5%
1	35%	under 5%
2	29%	under 5%
3	15%	under 5%
4	3%	under 5%
5	under 1%	–
6 (all)	under 1%	under 5%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Tusculum wins all 6: its NPI would still fall short of the cut line, so it would also need to win the SAC tournament.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Tusculum likely (8 in 10) ranks between 110th and 169th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 4 at Anderson (SC) W 11% · T 18% · L 71% likeliest 0–2

Oct 7 v Carson-Newman W 28% · T 26% · L 45% likeliest 0–1

Oct 10 at Wingate W 20% · T 24% · L 56% likeliest 0–1

Oct 13 at Bob Jones Not ratednot a D2 team, not rated

Oct 18 v Lenoir-Rhyne W 31% · T 24% · L 45% likeliest 1–1

Oct 24 v Newberry W 46% · T 26% · L 28% likeliest 1–1

Oct 28 at Emory & Henry W 19% · T 27% · L 53% likeliest 0–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 30 at Lees-McRae L 0–1 Rating +0.00

Sep 27 v Catawba L 0–2 Rating −0.03

Sep 23 v Lincoln Memorial T 1–1 Rating +0.03

Sep 12 at Coker L 0–2 Rating −0.02

Sep 9 v Southern Wesleyan W 2–0 Rating +0.09

Sep 5 at Lee L 0–1 Rating +0.00

Aug 29 at Converse L 1–5 Rating −0.16