Rankings · South Atlantic Conference · Super Region 2

Mars Hill University

Ranked 92nd of 202 D2 teams (likely between 45th and 129th) and 7th of 11 in the SAC. 5% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the SAC tournament.

Record 3-4-2 (W-L-T) · 3-4-2 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

Most of its chance comes from winning the SAC tournament (the auto bid).

Rank

92 of 202

Likely between 45th and 129th

7th of 11 in the SAC (likely 3rd to 9th)

Rating

+0.15

Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.2 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −0.24 to +0.59

Attack and defense

Attack +0.11: scores 0.11 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense +0.05: concedes 0.05 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the SAC tournament (the auto bid): 5% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 50.5, 29th of 57 in Super Region 2. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.1, so Mars Hill is about 5.5 short. Super Region 2 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	0%	–
1	10%	under 5%
2	22%	under 5%
3	28%	about 5%
4	27%	about 5%
5	10%	about 10%
6	3%	about 25%
7 (all)	0%	about 35%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Mars Hill wins all 7: its NPI clears the cut line in 36% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Mars Hill likely (8 in 10) ranks between 45th and 129th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 2 v Lincoln Memorial W 34% · T 25% · L 41% likeliest 1–1

Oct 6 v Shorter W 90% · T 6% · L 3% likeliest 3–0

Oct 10 at Newberry W 54% · T 22% · L 24% likeliest 1–1

Oct 14 v Young Harris W 30% · T 22% · L 49% likeliest 1–1

Oct 17 at Anderson (SC) W 19% · T 21% · L 60% likeliest 0–1

Oct 24 v Coker W 41% · T 23% · L 36% likeliest 1–1

Oct 28 v Lenoir-Rhyne W 48% · T 22% · L 31% likeliest 1–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 29 v Emory & Henry L 0–2 Rating −0.09

Sep 26 at Carson-Newman L 0–2 Rating −0.08

Sep 23 at Wingate W 2–0 Rating +0.08

Sep 12 at Catawba L 0–2 Rating −0.05

Sep 7 at Florida Tech T 0–0 Rating +0.06

Sep 5 at Saint Leo L 1–3 Rating −0.09

Sep 2 at North Greenville W 3–1 Rating +0.07

Aug 30 v Mount Olive W 6–0 Rating +0.14

Aug 27 at Montevallo T 3–3 Rating −0.02