Rankings · Gulf South Conference · Super Region 2

University of Montevallo

Ranked 120th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 69th and 151st) and 8th of 11 in the Gulf South. 4% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the Gulf South tournament.

Record 2-4-3 (W-L-T) · 2-4-3 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

Most of its chance comes from winning the Gulf South tournament (the auto bid).

Rank

120 of 202

Likely between 69th and 151st

8th of 11 in the Gulf South (likely 4th to 9th)

Rating

−0.09

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 0.1 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −0.53 to +0.36

Attack and defense

Attack −0.03: scores 0.03 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −0.06: concedes 0.06 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the Gulf South tournament (the auto bid): 4% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 48.8, 35th of 57 in Super Region 2. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.1, so Montevallo is about 7.3 short. Super Region 2 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	3%	under 5%
1	13%	under 5%
2	21%	under 5%
3	30%	under 5%
4	22%	about 10%
5	10%	about 5%
6	2%	–
7 (all)	under 1%	under 5%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Montevallo wins all 7: its NPI would still fall short of the cut line, so it would also need to win the Gulf South tournament.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Montevallo likely (8 in 10) ranks between 69th and 151st.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 v Tuskegee W 58% · T 19% · L 23% likeliest 2–1

Oct 7 v UAH W 26% · T 26% · L 48% likeliest 0–1

Oct 10 at Mississippi Christian W 25% · T 19% · L 56% likeliest 1–2

Oct 14 at West Ala. W 30% · T 21% · L 49% likeliest 1–1

Oct 17 v Union (TN) W 55% · T 23% · L 23% likeliest 1–1

Oct 20 at Newberry W 48% · T 23% · L 29% likeliest 1–1

Oct 23 at Spring Hill W 53% · T 23% · L 24% likeliest 1–1

Oct 27 v Talladega Not ratednot a D2 team, not rated

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 29 at Lincoln Memorial L 1–3 Rating −0.07

Sep 26 at Delta St. W 2–0 Rating +0.07

Sep 23 v AUM L 1–2 Rating −0.01

Sep 19 v Lee W 1–0 Rating +0.06

Sep 16 at Christian Brothers T 2–2 OT Rating +0.00

Sep 12 v Trevecca Nazarene T 1–1 Rating +0.01

Sep 6 v Nova Southeastern L 2–3 Rating −0.07

Sep 2 at Anderson (SC) L 0–2 Rating −0.03

Aug 27 v Mars Hill T 3–3 Rating −0.03