Rankings · South Atlantic Conference · Super Region 2

Lincoln Memorial University

Ranked 57th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 25th and 100th) and 3rd of 11 in the SAC. 19% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the SAC tournament.

Record 4-2-2 (W-L-T) · 4-2-2 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

19%

Most of its chance comes from winning the SAC tournament (the auto bid).

Top-four seed in Super Region 2 (first chance to host games): 3%

Rank

57 of 202

Likely between 25th and 100th

3rd of 11 in the SAC (likely 1st to 7th)

Rating

+0.46

Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.5 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range +0.06 to +0.88

Attack and defense

Attack +0.16: scores 0.16 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense +0.30: concedes 0.30 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the SAC tournament (the auto bid): 14% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 5% chance. NPI now 52.4, 24th of 57 in Super Region 2. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.1, so Lincoln Memorial is about 3.7 short. Super Region 2 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	3%	under 5%
1	15%	about 10%
2	28%	about 10%
3	28%	about 20%
4	16%	about 20%
5	7%	about 55%
6	2%	about 95%
7 (all)	0%	over 99%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Lincoln Memorial wins all 7: it makes the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, even without the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Lincoln Memorial likely (8 in 10) ranks between 25th and 100th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 2 at Mars Hill W 41% · T 25% · L 34% likeliest 1–1

Oct 7 v Emory & Henry W 45% · T 28% · L 27% likeliest 1–0

Oct 10 v Catawba W 39% · T 25% · L 36% likeliest 1–1

Oct 13 v AUM W 33% · T 26% · L 41% likeliest 1–1

Oct 17 at Coker W 39% · T 24% · L 36% likeliest 1–1

Oct 24 v Anderson (SC) W 33% · T 26% · L 42% likeliest 1–1

Oct 28 at Carson-Newman W 41% · T 26% · L 33% likeliest 1–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 29 v Montevallo W 3–1 Rating +0.04

Sep 23 at Tusculum T 1–1 Rating −0.03

Sep 19 at Newberry L 0–2 Rating −0.14

Sep 16 v Lenoir-Rhyne W 5–0 Rating +0.17

Sep 8 v Lynn T 1–1 Rating +0.02

Sep 5 v Wingate W 2–1 Rating +0.02

Aug 30 at Nova Southeastern W 3–1 Rating +0.05

Aug 27 at Palm Beach Atl. L 0–2 Rating −0.07