Rankings · South Atlantic Conference · Super Region 2
Carson-Newman University
Ranked 96th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 53rd and 132nd) and 8th of 11 in the SAC. 7% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the SAC tournament.
NCAA tournament chance
7%
Most of its chance comes from winning the SAC tournament (the auto bid).
Top-four seed in Super Region 2 (first chance to host games): <1%
Rank
96 of 202
Likely between 53rd and 132nd
8th of 11 in the SAC (likely 3rd to 9th)
Rating
+0.13
Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.1 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range −0.26 to +0.52
Attack and defense
Attack −0.00: scores 0.00 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense +0.13: concedes 0.13 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the SAC tournament (the auto bid): 7% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 52.2, 25th of 57 in Super Region 2. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.1, so Carson-Newman is about 3.9 short. Super Region 2 has 5 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 6 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | under 5% |
| 1 | 26% | under 5% |
| 2 | 28% | about 5% |
| 3 | 24% | about 10% |
| 4 | 11% | about 20% |
| 5 | 2% | – |
| 6 (all) | 0% | about 95% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If Carson-Newman wins all 6: its NPI clears the cut line in 94% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. Carson-Newman likely (8 in 10) ranks between 53rd and 132nd.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.