Rankings · South Atlantic Conference · Super Region 2

Newberry College

Ranked 165th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 131st and 181st) and 11th of 11 in the SAC. <1% chance of making the NCAA tournament.

Record 2-7-0 (W-L-T) · 1-7-0 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

<1%

Very unlikely to make the NCAA tournament, even with 7 games against D2 teams left.

Rank

165 of 202

Likely between 131st and 181st

11th of 11 in the SAC (likely 9th to 11th)

Rating

−0.70

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 0.7 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −1.17 to −0.25

Attack and defense

Attack −0.30: scores 0.30 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −0.39: concedes 0.39 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the SAC tournament (the auto bid): <1% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 41.5, 55th of 57 in Super Region 2. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.1, so Newberry is about 14.6 short. Super Region 2 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	13%	under 5%
1	28%	under 5%
2	32%	under 5%
3	20%	under 5%
4	6%	under 5%
5	1%	–
6	under 1%	–
7 (all)	under 1%	under 5%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Newberry wins all 7: its NPI would still fall short of the cut line, so it would also need to win the SAC tournament.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Newberry likely (8 in 10) ranks between 131st and 181st.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 v Middle Georgia W 56% · T 20% · L 24% likeliest 2–1

Oct 7 v Anderson (SC) W 12% · T 17% · L 70% likeliest 0–2

Oct 10 v Mars Hill W 24% · T 22% · L 54% likeliest 1–1

Oct 17 at Emory & Henry W 16% · T 23% · L 61% likeliest 0–1

Oct 20 v Montevallo W 29% · T 23% · L 48% likeliest 1–1

Oct 24 at Tusculum W 28% · T 26% · L 46% likeliest 1–1

Oct 28 at Wingate W 16% · T 20% · L 63% likeliest 0–1

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 26 v Lenoir-Rhyne L 0–2 Rating −0.03

Sep 23 at Coker L 1–2 Rating +0.01

Sep 19 v Lincoln Memorial W 2–0 Rating +0.16

Sep 15 at Bob Jones · not a D2 team, not rated W 5–3

Sep 12 at Carson-Newman L 0–2 Rating −0.02

Sep 9 v Lee L 1–2 Rating −0.03

Sep 5 v Catawba L 0–5 Rating −0.19

Sep 2 v Southern Wesleyan L 1–3 Rating −0.11

Aug 29 at Belmont Abbey L 0–1 Rating +0.01