Rankings · South Atlantic Conference · Super Region 2

Wingate University

Ranked 82nd of 202 D2 teams (likely between 42nd and 123rd) and 5th of 11 in the SAC. 6% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the SAC tournament.

Record 3-3-2 (W-L-T) · 3-3-2 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

Most of its chance comes from winning the SAC tournament (the auto bid).

Top-four seed in Super Region 2 (first chance to host games): <1%

Rank

82 of 202

Likely between 42nd and 123rd

5th of 11 in the SAC (likely 3rd to 9th)

Rating

+0.22

Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.2 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −0.17 to +0.63

Attack and defense

Attack +0.02: scores 0.02 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense +0.21: concedes 0.21 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the SAC tournament (the auto bid): 5% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 51.5, 27th of 57 in Super Region 2. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.1, so Wingate is about 4.6 short. Super Region 2 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	1%	–
1	8%	under 5%
2	18%	under 5%
3	28%	under 5%
4	27%	about 10%
5	12%	about 10%
6	4%	about 15%
7 (all)	1%	about 80%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Wingate wins all 7: its NPI clears the cut line in 79% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Wingate likely (8 in 10) ranks between 42nd and 123rd.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 at Catawba W 25% · T 24% · L 51% likeliest 1–1

Oct 7 at Coker W 33% · T 24% · L 42% likeliest 1–1

Oct 10 v Tusculum W 56% · T 24% · L 20% likeliest 1–0

Oct 14 v Mount Olive W 74% · T 14% · L 12% likeliest 2–1

Oct 18 at Carson-Newman W 35% · T 26% · L 39% likeliest 1–1

Oct 24 v Emory & Henry W 39% · T 29% · L 32% likeliest 1–0

Oct 28 v Newberry W 63% · T 20% · L 16% likeliest 1–0

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 26 v Anderson (SC) T 2–2 Rating +0.02

Sep 23 v Mars Hill L 0–2 Rating −0.08

Sep 20 at Lenoir-Rhyne T 1–1 Rating +0.00

Sep 12 at Middle Georgia W 8–1 Rating +0.17

Sep 9 v Francis Marion L 0–1 Rating −0.03

Sep 5 at Lincoln Memorial L 1–2 Rating −0.03

Sep 2 at Converse W 1–0 Rating +0.05

Aug 29 v Lander W 2–0 Rating +0.07