Rankings · Conference Carolinas · Super Region 2

University of Mount Olive

Ranked 183rd of 202 D2 teams (likely between 157th and 195th) and 13th of 15 in the Carolinas. <1% chance of making the NCAA tournament.

Record 2-7-0 (W-L-T) · 2-7-0 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

<1%

Very unlikely to make the NCAA tournament, even with 7 games against D2 teams left.

Rank

183 of 202

Likely between 157th and 195th

13th of 15 in the Carolinas (likely 11th to 14th)

Rating

−1.20

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 1.2 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −1.85 to −0.62

Attack and defense

Attack −0.08: scores 0.08 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −1.14: concedes 1.14 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the Carolinas tournament (the auto bid): <1% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 43.3, 50th of 57 in Super Region 2. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.1, so Mount Olive is about 12.8 short. Super Region 2 has 5 at-large places.

How many more wins it needs

Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

Wins	How likely	NCAA chance then
0	23%	under 5%
1	38%	under 5%
2	27%	under 5%
3	9%	under 5%
4	2%	–
5	under 1%	–
6	under 1%	–
7 (all)	under 1%	under 5%

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Mount Olive wins all 7: its NPI would still fall short of the cut line, so it would also need to win the Carolinas tournament.

Rating over the season

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

How sure is the rank?

Taller bars are more likely. Mount Olive likely (8 in 10) ranks between 157th and 195th.

Still to play

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 at Young Harris W 6% · T 8% · L 87% likeliest 0–4

Oct 7 at Francis Marion W 7% · T 12% · L 81% likeliest 0–2

Oct 10 v Ferrum W 34% · T 21% · L 46% likeliest 1–1

Oct 14 at Wingate W 12% · T 14% · L 74% likeliest 1–2

Oct 17 v Barton W 43% · T 19% · L 38% likeliest 2–2

Oct 20 v Chowan W 13% · T 12% · L 76% likeliest 1–3

Oct 24 v Francis Marion W 11% · T 15% · L 74% likeliest 0–2

Results

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 30 at Barton L 2–4 Rating −0.12

Sep 26 v Converse L 3–6 Rating −0.19

Sep 22 at Chowan L 2–3 Rating +0.13

Sep 19 v Lees-McRae L 1–5 Rating −0.22

Sep 16 at Ferrum L 0–2 Rating −0.03

Sep 12 at Belmont Abbey W 3–2 Rating +0.10

Sep 9 v Anderson (SC) L 0–4 Rating −0.09

Sep 1 v Shaw W 7–1 Rating +0.19

Aug 30 at Mars Hill L 0–6 Rating −0.24