Rankings · Conference Carolinas · Super Region 2
Francis Marion University
Ranked 37th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 21st and 81st) and 2nd of 15 in the Carolinas. 87% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly through an at-large place.
NCAA tournament chance
87%
With 4 or more wins from its last 7 games against D2 teams, its NCAA chance is about 98%; with fewer, about 65%.
Top-four seed in Super Region 2 (first chance to host games): 60%
Rank
37 of 202
Likely between 21st and 81st
2nd of 15 in the Carolinas (likely 1st to 5th)
Rating
+0.61
Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.6 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range +0.26 to +0.94
Attack and defense
Attack +0.08: scores 0.08 more goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense +0.53: concedes 0.53 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the Carolinas tournament (the auto bid): 23% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 64% chance. NPI now 59.6, 2nd of 57 in Super Region 2. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.1, so Francis Marion is about 3.6 above it. Super Region 2 has 5 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | under 1% | – |
| 1 | 1% | – |
| 2 | 9% | about 50% |
| 3 | 22% | about 75% |
| 4 | 28% | about 95% |
| 5 | 26% | about 100% |
| 6 | 10% | over 99% |
| 7 (all) | 2% | over 99% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If Francis Marion wins all 7: it makes the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, even without the conference title.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. Francis Marion likely (8 in 10) ranks between 21st and 81st.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.