Shorter University

Ranked 201st of 202 D2 teams (likely between 194th and 202nd) and 15th of 15 in the Carolinas. <1% chance of making the NCAA tournament.

Record 2-5-0 (W-L-T) · 1-5-0 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

<1%

Very unlikely to make the NCAA tournament, even with 7 games against D2 teams left.

Rank

201 of 202

Likely between 194th and 202nd

15th of 15 in the Carolinas (likely 14th to 15th)

Rating

−2.49

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 2.5 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −3.28 to −1.81

Attack and defense

Attack −0.55: scores 0.55 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −1.93: concedes 1.93 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the Carolinas tournament (the auto bid): <1% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 42.1, 54th of 57 in Super Region 2. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.1, so Shorter is about 14.0 short. Super Region 2 has 5 at-large places.

Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Shorter wins all 7: its NPI would still fall short of the cut line, so it would also need to win the Carolinas tournament.

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

Taller bars are more likely. Shorter likely (8 in 10) ranks between 194th and 202nd.

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 at King (TN) W 13% · T 17% · L 70% likeliest 0–2

Oct 6 at Mars Hill W 3% · T 6% · L 90% likeliest 0–3

Oct 10 at Erskine W 24% · T 19% · L 57% likeliest 1–2

Oct 14 at Emmanuel (GA) W 6% · T 9% · L 85% likeliest 0–3

Oct 17 v Lees-McRae W 5% · T 12% · L 83% likeliest 0–2

Oct 20 at Young Harris W 1% · T 3% · L 96% likeliest 0–5

Oct 24 v Southern Wesleyan W 11% · T 14% · L 75% likeliest 0–2

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 26 v Belmont Abbey L 0–4 Rating −0.13

Sep 22 at Southern Wesleyan L 0–1 Rating +0.17

Sep 16 v Young Harris L 1–3 Rating +0.17

Sep 12 at Francis Marion L 0–5 Rating −0.11

Sep 8 v Emmanuel (GA) L 2–5 Rating −0.15

Sep 5 v Erskine W 3–2 Rating +0.03

Sep 1 v Bryan · not a D2 team, not rated W 4–2