Rankings · Conference Carolinas · Super Region 2
Lees-McRae College
Ranked 72nd of 202 D2 teams (likely between 41st and 106th) and 5th of 15 in the Carolinas. 44% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly through an at-large place.
NCAA tournament chance
44%
With 3 or more wins from its last 7 games against D2 teams, its NCAA chance is about 53%; with fewer, about 15%.
Top-four seed in Super Region 2 (first chance to host games): 18%
Rank
72 of 202
Likely between 41st and 106th
5th of 15 in the Carolinas (likely 2nd to 6th)
Rating
+0.33
Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.3 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range +0.03 to +0.64
Attack and defense
Attack −0.17: scores 0.17 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense +0.50: concedes 0.50 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the Carolinas tournament (the auto bid): 15% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 29% chance. NPI now 57.0, 11th of 57 in Super Region 2. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.1, so Lees-McRae is about 0.9 above it. Super Region 2 has 5 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1% | – |
| 1 | 5% | about 10% |
| 2 | 18% | about 15% |
| 3 | 29% | about 25% |
| 4 | 27% | about 55% |
| 5 | 15% | about 85% |
| 6 | 5% | about 95% |
| 7 (all) | 1% | over 99% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If Lees-McRae wins all 7: it makes the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, even without the conference title.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. Lees-McRae likely (8 in 10) ranks between 41st and 106th.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.