Rankings · South Atlantic Conference · Super Region 2
Emory & Henry University
Ranked 86th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 49th and 123rd) and 6th of 11 in the SAC. 27% chance of making the NCAA tournament.
NCAA tournament chance
27%
With 2 or more wins from its last 5 games against D2 teams, its NCAA chance is about 34%; with fewer, about 9%.
Top-four seed in Super Region 2 (first chance to host games): 6%
Rank
86 of 202
Likely between 49th and 123rd
6th of 11 in the SAC (likely 3rd to 9th)
Rating
+0.19
Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.2 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range −0.15 to +0.56
Attack and defense
Attack −0.17: scores 0.17 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense +0.37: concedes 0.37 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the SAC tournament (the auto bid): 12% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 15% chance. NPI now 57.2, 9th of 57 in Super Region 2. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.1, so Emory & Henry is about 1.2 above it. Super Region 2 has 5 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 5 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | about 10% |
| 1 | 23% | about 10% |
| 2 | 33% | about 20% |
| 3 | 28% | about 35% |
| 4 | 10% | about 75% |
| 5 (all) | 1% | over 99% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If Emory & Henry wins all 5: it makes the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, even without the conference title.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. Emory & Henry likely (8 in 10) ranks between 49th and 123rd.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.