Rankings · DII Independent · Super Region 1

Shaw University

Ranked 200th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 191st and 202nd). <1% chance of making the NCAA tournament.

Record 0-7-0 (W-L-T) · 0-2-0 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

<1%

Very unlikely to make the NCAA tournament, even with 3 games against D2 teams left.

Rank

200 of 202

Likely between 191st and 202nd

Rating

−2.43

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 2.4 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −3.59 to −1.57

Attack and defense

Attack −0.33: scores 0.33 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −2.11: concedes 2.11 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

As an independent, Shaw has no conference tournament to win, so an at-large place is its only way in.
Earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 34.8, 53rd of 53 in Super Region 1. The last at-large team usually ends on about 55.1, so Shaw is about 20.4 short. Super Region 1 has 5 at-large places.

Its last 3 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Shaw wins all 3: its NPI would still fall short of the cut line, so it would also need to win the Independent tournament.

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

Taller bars are more likely. Shaw likely (8 in 10) ranks between 191st and 202nd.

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 2 v Bob Jones Not ratednot a D2 team, not rated

Oct 10 at CarolinaU Not ratednot a D2 team, not rated

Oct 13 at N.C. Wesleyan Not ratednot a D2 team, not rated

Oct 17 at Virginia St. W 40% · T 18% · L 42% likeliest 2–2

Oct 21 at Greensboro Not ratednot a D2 team, not rated

Oct 24 at Barton W 15% · T 13% · L 72% likeliest 1–3

Nov 4 v Virginia St. W 51% · T 17% · L 31% likeliest 2–1

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 20 at William Peace · not a D2 team, not rated L 0–1

Sep 18 v CarolinaU · not a D2 team, not rated L 1–6

Sep 16 at Methodist · not a D2 team, not rated L 0–4

Sep 13 v JWU Charlotte · not a D2 team, not rated L 3–4

Sep 11 at Pfeiffer · not a D2 team, not rated L 0–5

Sep 9 v Ferrum L 2–3 Rating −0.01

Sep 1 at Mount Olive L 1–7 Rating −0.49