Spring Hill College

Ranked 175th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 144th and 188th) and 11th of 11 in the Gulf South. <1% chance of making the NCAA tournament.

Record 0-5-2 (W-L-T) · 0-4-2 against D2 teams

NCAA tournament chance

<1%

Very unlikely to make the NCAA tournament, even with 6 games against D2 teams left.

Rank

175 of 202

Likely between 144th and 188th

11th of 11 in the Gulf South (likely 9th to 11th)

Rating

−0.87

Would lose to an average D2 team by about 0.9 goals a game, on a neutral field.

Likely range −1.46 to −0.41

Attack and defense

Attack −0.40: scores 0.40 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.

Defense −0.49: concedes 0.49 more goals a game than an average D2 team.

Attack + defense = rating.

What it takes to make the NCAA tournament

There are two ways in. How qualifying works.

Win the Gulf South tournament (the auto bid): <1% chance.
Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 42.6, 53rd of 57 in Super Region 2. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.1, so Spring Hill is about 13.5 short. Super Region 2 has 5 at-large places.

Its last 6 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.

– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.

If Spring Hill wins all 6: its NPI would still fall short of the cut line, so it would also need to win the Gulf South tournament.

Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.

Taller bars are more likely. Spring Hill likely (8 in 10) ranks between 144th and 188th.

win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.

Oct 3 at UAH W 9% · T 17% · L 74% likeliest 0–2

Oct 7 v Mississippi Christian W 17% · T 16% · L 67% likeliest 1–2

Oct 10 at Lee W 13% · T 22% · L 65% likeliest 0–1

Oct 14 at Trevecca Nazarene W 15% · T 18% · L 67% likeliest 0–2

Oct 17 v Delta St. W 41% · T 26% · L 33% likeliest 1–1

Oct 23 v Montevallo W 24% · T 23% · L 53% likeliest 1–1

Oct 31 at West Florida Not ratednot a D2 team, not rated

How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.

Sep 26 v West Ala. T 1–1 Rating +0.09

Sep 19 at Union (TN) L 0–1 Rating +0.02

Sep 16 v AUM L 0–3 Rating −0.07

Sep 12 at Christian Brothers L 0–3 Rating −0.10

Sep 8 v Tuskegee L 0–1 Rating +0.01

Sep 4 v Embry-Riddle (FL) T 1–1 Rating +0.04

Sep 2 at Mobile · not a D2 team, not rated L 0–3