Rankings · Sunshine State Conference · Super Region 2
Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University (Florida)
Ranked 132nd of 202 D2 teams (likely between 91st and 163rd) and 10th of 11 in the Sunshine State. 3% chance of making the NCAA tournament.
NCAA tournament chance
3%
With 1 or more wins from its last 7 games against D2 teams, its NCAA chance is about 3%; with fewer, about 1%.
Rank
132 of 202
Likely between 91st and 163rd
10th of 11 in the Sunshine State (likely 7th to 11th)
Rating
−0.24
Would lose to an average D2 team by about 0.2 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range −0.71 to +0.15
Attack and defense
Attack −0.22: scores 0.22 fewer goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense −0.03: concedes 0.03 more goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the Sunshine State tournament (the auto bid): 1% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: 1% chance. NPI now 54.8, 17th of 57 in Super Region 2. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.1, so Embry-Riddle (FL) is about 1.3 short. Super Region 2 has 5 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 7 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19% | under 5% |
| 1 | 32% | under 5% |
| 2 | 29% | under 5% |
| 3 | 15% | under 5% |
| 4 | 4% | about 20% |
| 5 | 1% | – |
| 6 | under 1% | – |
| 7 (all) | under 1% | over 99% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If Embry-Riddle (FL) wins all 7: it makes the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, even without the conference title.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. Embry-Riddle (FL) likely (8 in 10) ranks between 91st and 163rd.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.