Rankings · Sunshine State Conference · Super Region 2
Saint Leo University
Ranked 95th of 202 D2 teams (likely between 47th and 135th) and 8th of 11 in the Sunshine State. 2% chance of making the NCAA tournament, mostly by winning the Sunshine State tournament.
NCAA tournament chance
2%
Most of its chance comes from winning the Sunshine State tournament (the auto bid).
Rank
95 of 202
Likely between 47th and 135th
8th of 11 in the Sunshine State (likely 4th to 10th)
Rating
+0.14
Would beat an average D2 team by about 0.1 goals a game, on a neutral field.
Likely range −0.31 to +0.59
Attack and defense
Attack +0.15: scores 0.15 more goals a game than an average D2 team.
Defense −0.02: concedes 0.02 more goals a game than an average D2 team.
Attack + defense = rating.
What it takes to make the NCAA tournament
There are two ways in. How qualifying works.
- Win the Sunshine State tournament (the auto bid): 2% chance.
- Or earn an at-large place on the NPI, the NCAA's ranking formula: <1% chance. NPI now 52.1, 26th of 57 in Super Region 2. The last at-large team usually ends on about 56.1, so Saint Leo is about 4.0 short. Super Region 2 has 5 at-large places.
How many more wins it needs
Its last 6 games against D2 teams: how many it might win, and its NCAA chance in each case. A tie counts as half a win.
| Wins | How likely | NCAA chance then |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | under 5% |
| 1 | 19% | under 5% |
| 2 | 32% | under 5% |
| 3 | 27% | under 5% |
| 4 | 14% | about 5% |
| 5 | 4% | about 5% |
| 6 (all) | 0% | about 45% |
– means too few simulated seasons to say. Which games are won matters as well as how many: wins over strong teams and away wins count for more.
If Saint Leo wins all 6: its NPI clears the cut line in 47% of simulated seasons, without needing the conference title.
Rating over the season
Line: rating after each daily update. Shaded: likely range. Above 0 is better than an average D2 team.
How sure is the rank?
Taller bars are more likely. Saint Leo likely (8 in 10) ranks between 47th and 135th.
Still to play
win tie loss chances for each game. A tie can be the likeliest single score even when a win is more likely overall.
Results
How much each result changed the rating. A win can lower it if the model expected a bigger win; a narrow loss to a strong team can raise it.