Every D2 men's team, rated with honest ranges
Each dot is our best estimate of how many goals a team would win or lose by against an average Division II team on a neutral field. The thick bar is the middle 80% of plausible values: there is an 80% chance the team's true level sits inside it. The thin line stretches to 95%. Where two teams' bars overlap a lot, the results so far cannot really tell them apart, so their order in this list is not settled.
Bars: rank, with 1st on the right.
#
Team
Conf
W-L-D
NCAA
7d
1
Southern N.H. ★NE10 · 7-0-3
NE10
7-0-3
99%
–
2
Midwestern St. ★Lone Star · 9-0-2
Lone Star
9-0-2
>99%
▲1
3
Charleston (WV) ★MEC · 8-2-0
MEC
8-2-0
>99%
▼1
4
Gannon ★PSAC · 7-1-1
PSAC
7-1-1
94%
▲2
5
Franklin Pierce ★NE10 · 5-2-2
NE10
5-2-2
81%
▼1
6
Fort Hays St. ★GAC · 7-1-2
GAC
7-1-2
95%
▼1
7
Lynn ★Sunshine State · 3-1-4
Sunshine State
3-1-4
54%
▲3
8
Queens (NY) ★ECC · 7-3-1
ECC
7-3-1
67%
▼1
9
Fort Lewis ★RMAC · 5-2-2
RMAC
5-2-2
67%
▲3
10
Saginaw Valley ★GLIAC · 3-1-4
GLIAC
3-1-4
95%
▼2
11
Rogers St. ★GAC · 6-3-1
GAC
6-3-1
52%
▲2
12
UCCS ★RMAC · 5-1-4
RMAC
5-1-4
68%
▼3
13
CSU Pueblo ★RMAC · 7-0-1
RMAC
7-0-1
94%
▼2
14
Maryville (MO) ★GLVC · 8-2-1
GLVC
8-2-1
86%
▲4
15
Cal State LA ★CCAA · 8-0-1
CCAA
8-0-1
90%
▲7
16
Millersville ★PSAC · 8-2-1
PSAC
8-2-1
72%
–
17
Tiffin ★G-MAC · 6-1-3
G-MAC
6-1-3
87%
▼3
18
Anderson (SC) ★SAC · 6-0-3
SAC
6-0-3
72%
▼1
19
Point Loma ★PacWest · 4-3-3
PacWest
4-3-3
38%
▼4
20
Seattle Pacific ★GNAC · 7-2-1
GNAC
7-2-1
74%
▼1
21
AUM ★Gulf South · 8-1-0
Gulf South
8-1-0
92%
–
22
Young Harris ★Carolinas · 6-0-3
Carolinas
6-0-3
66%
▼2
23
CSUSB ★CCAA · 7-0-2
CCAA
7-0-2
75%
▲2
24
North Georgia ★Peach Belt · 6-0-5
Peach Belt
6-0-5
62%
▼1
25
Regis (CO) ★RMAC · 4-2-2
RMAC
4-2-2
56%
▼1
26
Lincoln (MO) ★GLVC · 5-0-3
GLVC
5-0-3
70%
▲3
27
Western Ore. ★GNAC · 5-2-4
GNAC
5-2-4
48%
▲1
28
Palm Beach Atl. ★Sunshine State · 4-2-4
Sunshine State
4-2-4
23%
▼2
29
Concord ★MEC · 7-1-2
MEC
7-1-2
85%
▲15
30
Catawba ★SAC · 7-0-2
SAC
7-0-2
51%
▲4
31
Flagler ★Peach Belt · 5-1-4
Peach Belt
5-1-4
50%
▼1
32
Clayton St. ★Peach Belt · 5-2-3
Peach Belt
5-2-3
33%
▲4
33
Davis & Elkins ★MEC · 8-0-1
MEC
8-0-1
99%
▲15
34
Florida Tech ★Sunshine State · 5-2-3
Sunshine State
5-2-3
26%
▼7
35
Felician ★CACC · 2-4-3
CACC
2-4-3
23%
▲6
36
Wilmington (DE) ★CACC · 2-3-5
CACC
2-3-5
17%
▼5
37
Francis Marion ★Carolinas · 9-1-1
Carolinas
9-1-1
86%
▲5
38
Chowan ★Carolinas · 5-2-2
Carolinas
5-2-2
25%
▲30
39
Cal Poly Pomona ★CCAA · 3-3-3
CCAA
3-3-3
14%
▼2
40
Post ★CACC · 5-2-2
CACC
5-2-2
34%
▼1
41
Mercy ★ECC · 7-2-2
ECC
7-2-2
42%
▼3
42
Rollins ★Sunshine State · 4-3-1
Sunshine State
4-3-1
13%
▼9
43
Drury ★GLVC · 7-2-1
GLVC
7-2-1
53%
▲6
44
East Stroudsburg ★PSAC · 6-3-3
PSAC
6-3-3
19%
▲12
45
Cal St. Dom. Hills ★CCAA · 5-3-3
CCAA
5-3-3
13%
▲14
46
UAH ★Gulf South · 7-1-1
Gulf South
7-1-1
54%
–
47
Roosevelt ★GLIAC · 4-0-4
GLIAC
4-0-4
70%
–
48
MSU Denver ★RMAC · 5-2-3
RMAC
5-2-3
28%
▼13
49
McKendree ★GLVC · 2-6-2
GLVC
2-6-2
4%
▼9
50
Bridgeport ★CACC · 3-2-3
CACC
3-2-3
20%
▲15
51
Fla. Southern ★Sunshine State · 9-1-0
Sunshine State
9-1-0
56%
▲7
52
UIndy ★GLVC · 4-3-4
GLVC
4-3-4
15%
▼20
53
Findlay ★G-MAC · 7-1-1
G-MAC
7-1-1
70%
▼1
54
Adelphi ★NE10 · 4-4-2
NE10
4-4-2
5%
▲12
55
Quincy ★GLVC · 5-2-5
GLVC
5-2-5
39%
▼10
56
Northern Mich. ★GLIAC · 5-2-2
GLIAC
5-2-2
71%
▲14
57
Lincoln Memorial ★SAC · 4-2-2
SAC
4-2-2
18%
▼3
58
West Chester ★PSAC · 4-3-2
PSAC
4-3-2
12%
▲2
59
Thomas More ★G-MAC · 8-2-1
G-MAC
8-2-1
56%
▲15
60
Bloomsburg ★PSAC · 4-4-3
PSAC
4-4-3
3%
▼7
61
Stanislaus St. ★CCAA · 2-4-4
CCAA
2-4-4
5%
▼11
62
Tampa ★Sunshine State · 4-2-3
Sunshine State
4-2-3
13%
▼19
63
St. Mary's (TX) ★Lone Star · 6-3-0
Lone Star
6-3-0
16%
▼12
64
St. Thomas Aquinas ★ECC · 3-3-3
ECC
3-3-3
24%
▼2
65
Bentley ★NE10 · 4-3-2
NE10
4-3-2
9%
▼4
66
Southern Conn. St. ★NE10 · 2-2-4
NE10
2-2-4
11%
▲9
67
Mississippi Christian ★Gulf South · 2-4-2
Gulf South
2-4-2
9%
▼12
68
UT Dallas ★Lone Star · 6-1-3
Lone Star
6-1-3
13%
▼4
69
Converse ★Carolinas · 5-2-3
Carolinas
5-2-3
9%
▲15
70
Western Wash. ★GNAC · 6-3-2
GNAC
6-3-2
22%
▼13
71
Missouri S&T ★GLVC · 7-3-0
GLVC
7-3-0
24%
▲5
72
Lees-McRae ★Carolinas · 8-0-2
Carolinas
8-0-2
47%
▲7
73
Southern Nazarene ★GAC · 5-3-1
GAC
5-3-1
11%
▼1
74
Hawaii Hilo ★PacWest · 4-4-1
PacWest
4-4-1
16%
▼11
75
Colorado Mesa ★RMAC · 3-1-5
RMAC
3-1-5
16%
▲6
76
Lake Erie ★G-MAC · 5-4-2
G-MAC
5-4-2
18%
▼3
77
Lander ★Peach Belt · 3-4-2
Peach Belt
3-4-2
11%
▼6
78
Northwest Nazarene ★GNAC · 6-1-4
GNAC
6-1-4
40%
▲2
79
Coker ★SAC · 2-3-0
SAC
2-3-0
10%
▼10
80
Westminster (UT) ★RMAC · 2-4-4
RMAC
2-4-4
5%
▲5
81
Lee ★Gulf South · 6-3-2
Gulf South
6-3-2
12%
▲1
82
Wingate ★SAC · 3-3-2
SAC
3-3-2
8%
▲5
83
DBU ★Lone Star · 4-2-4
Lone Star
4-2-4
6%
▲8
84
St. Edward's ★Lone Star · 2-5-2
Lone Star
2-5-2
4%
▲9
85
Barry ★Sunshine State · 2-4-2
Sunshine State
2-4-2
4%
▲3
86
Emory & Henry ★SAC · 4-1-5
SAC
4-1-5
26%
▲16
87
Cedarville ★G-MAC · 5-5-1
G-MAC
5-5-1
7%
▲8
88
CUI ★PacWest · 6-4-1
PacWest
6-4-1
13%
▼5
89
Cal St. San Marcos ★CCAA · 6-3-1
CCAA
6-3-1
6%
▲15
90
Rockhurst ★GLVC · 3-4-3
GLVC
3-4-3
3%
▼4
91
Cal St. Monterey Bay ★CCAA · 4-2-3
CCAA
4-2-3
6%
▼14
92
Mars Hill ★SAC · 3-4-2
SAC
3-4-2
3%
▼25
93
Okla. Christian ★Lone Star · 4-4-2
Lone Star
4-4-2
4%
▲6
94
American Int'l ★NE10 · 5-3-2
NE10
5-3-2
9%
▲14
95
Saint Leo ★Sunshine State · 3-4-2
Sunshine State
3-4-2
2%
▼17
96
Carson-Newman ★SAC · 4-3-2
SAC
4-3-2
7%
▲1
97
West Ala. ★Gulf South · 3-5-2
Gulf South
3-5-2
5%
▼7
98
Christian Brothers ★Gulf South · 3-5-2
Gulf South
3-5-2
6%
▼6
99
Trevecca Nazarene ★Gulf South · 7-1-2
Gulf South
7-1-2
23%
▲10
100
Simon Fraser ★GNAC · 2-2-5
GNAC
2-2-5
11%
▲1
101
Menlo ★CCAA · 4-3-2
CCAA
4-3-2
2%
▲16
102
Lubbock Christian ★Lone Star · 4-5-1
Lone Star
4-5-1
4%
▲4
103
Ky. Wesleyan ★G-MAC · 4-3-1
G-MAC
4-3-1
9%
▼7
104
Wis.-Parkside ★GLIAC · 3-5-1
GLIAC
3-5-1
5%
▼15
105
Frostburg St. ★MEC · 5-2-3
MEC
5-2-3
16%
▼11
106
Molloy ★ECC · 4-2-3
ECC
4-2-3
8%
▼3
107
Fresno Pacific ★CCAA · 4-5-1
CCAA
4-5-1
2%
▼9
108
Lenoir-Rhyne ★SAC · 1-5-3
SAC
1-5-3
3%
▲6
109
Lock Haven ★PSAC · 2-3-5
PSAC
2-3-5
4%
▲2
110
Lewis ★GLVC · 2-6-2
GLVC
2-6-2
1%
▼5
111
Chico St. ★CCAA · 3-5-2
CCAA
3-5-2
2%
▼11
112
Seton Hill ★PSAC · 4-4-2
PSAC
4-4-2
4%
▼5
113
Purdue Northwest ★GLIAC · 6-1-2
GLIAC
6-1-2
46%
▲12
114
Shepherd ★PSAC · 4-2-3
PSAC
4-2-3
5%
▼2
115
Biola ★PacWest · 2-5-3
PacWest
2-5-3
11%
▲17
116
Nova Southeastern ★Sunshine State · 1-6-1
Sunshine State
1-6-1
1%
▼1
117
Georgian Court ★CACC · 5-2-2
CACC
5-2-2
9%
▼7
118
Northeastern St. ★GAC · 2-7-1
GAC
2-7-1
3%
▲8
119
Mo.-St. Louis ★GLVC · 3-4-2
GLVC
3-4-2
1%
▼3
120
Montevallo ★Gulf South · 2-4-3
Gulf South
2-4-3
4%
▼1
121
Westmont ★PacWest · 2-5-4
PacWest
2-5-4
6%
▲1
122
Saint Michael's ★NE10 · 1-6-2
NE10
1-6-2
<1%
▼4
123
UT Tyler ★Lone Star · 2-3-4
Lone Star
2-3-4
1%
▼10
124
Dominican (CA) ★PacWest · 1-3-4
PacWest
1-3-4
6%
▲6
125
Ashland ★G-MAC · 3-6-0
G-MAC
3-6-0
4%
▼2
126
Dist. Columbia ★ECC · 4-4-2
ECC
4-4-2
2%
▼5
127
UC Merced ★CCAA · 2-3-3
CCAA
2-3-3
1%
▲1
128
Newman ★GAC · 3-7-0
GAC
3-7-0
1%
▲9
129
Belmont Abbey ★Carolinas · 3-6-2
Carolinas
3-6-2
1%
▲7
130
North Greenville ★Carolinas · 3-6-1
Carolinas
3-6-1
3%
▼3
131
Emmanuel (GA) ★Carolinas · 4-5-1
Carolinas
4-5-1
2%
▼11
132
Embry-Riddle (FL) ★Sunshine State · 6-1-2
Sunshine State
6-1-2
3%
▲6
133
Holy Family ★CACC · 2-4-4
CACC
2-4-4
5%
▲10
134
Caldwell ★CACC · 3-5-0
CACC
3-5-0
4%
▼3
135
Vanguard ★PacWest · 3-5-2
PacWest
3-5-2
6%
▼1
136
Assumption ★NE10 · 4-3-2
NE10
4-3-2
1%
▲11
137
Slippery Rock ★PSAC · 2-3-4
PSAC
2-3-4
1%
▼13
138
Southern Wesleyan ★Carolinas · 7-3-1
Carolinas
7-3-1
5%
▼5
139
West Liberty ★MEC · 5-4-0
MEC
5-4-0
3%
▲3
140
D'Youville ★ECC · 4-4-3
ECC
4-4-3
3%
▼1
141
Tex. A&M Int'l ★Lone Star · 4-3-2
Lone Star
4-3-2
2%
–
142
Saint Anselm ★NE10 · 4-5-0
NE10
4-5-0
1%
▼2
143
Jefferson ★CACC · 2-6-0
CACC
2-6-0
2%
▲2
144
Staten Island ★ECC · 3-4-1
ECC
3-4-1
3%
▼9
145
Pace ★NE10 · 4-3-3
NE10
4-3-3
<1%
▼16
146
Tusculum ★SAC · 1-5-1
SAC
1-5-1
<1%
–
147
Davenport ★GLIAC · 2-4-3
GLIAC
2-4-3
2%
▲4
148
Ga. Southwestern ★Peach Belt · 2-6-2
Peach Belt
2-6-2
1%
▼4
149
Ferrum ★Carolinas · 5-3-2
Carolinas
5-3-2
0%
▼1
150
Hawaii Pacific ★PacWest · 3-4-3
PacWest
3-4-3
4%
▲11
151
Roberts Wesleyan ★ECC · 2-6-2
ECC
2-6-2
0%
▼1
152
West Tex. A&M ★Lone Star · 3-6-1
Lone Star
3-6-1
0%
–
153
Cal St. East Bay ★CCAA · 2-6-2
CCAA
2-6-2
1%
▼4
154
William Jewell ★GLVC · 2-7-1
GLVC
2-7-1
0%
▲3
155
South Dakota Mines ★RMAC · 5-2-2
RMAC
5-2-2
1%
▲1
156
Union (TN) ★Gulf South · 4-5-0
Gulf South
4-5-0
1%
▼1
157
Truman St. ★GLVC · 4-3-3
GLVC
4-3-3
1%
▲3
158
Point Park ★MEC · 4-4-2
MEC
4-4-2
1%
–
159
Colo. Christian ★RMAC · 2-4-4
RMAC
2-4-4
0%
▲4
160
Ill. Springfield ★GLVC · 1-7-2
GLVC
1-7-2
<1%
▼1
161
Ouachita Baptist ★GAC · 5-3-1
GAC
5-3-1
2%
▲6
162
Shawnee State ★MEC · 3-5-2
MEC
3-5-2
1%
▲8
163
St. Cloud St. ★GLIAC · 2-6-1
GLIAC
2-6-1
<1%
▼9
164
King (TN) ★Carolinas · 1-8-0
Carolinas
1-8-0
<1%
▲9
165
Newberry ★SAC · 2-7-0
SAC
2-7-0
<1%
▼3
166
Shippensburg ★PSAC · 2-4-3
PSAC
2-4-3
0%
▼13
167
Tuskegee ★ · 4-1-1
4-1-1
0%
▼1
168
Upper Iowa ★GLVC · 1-5-4
GLVC
1-5-4
0%
▼3
169
Colo. Sch. of Mines ★RMAC · 0-8-2
RMAC
0-8-2
<1%
▼5
170
Northwood ★G-MAC · 2-6-1
G-MAC
2-6-1
1%
▲5
171
Eckerd ★Sunshine State · 3-7-0
Sunshine State
3-7-0
0%
▲1
172
Dominican (NY) ★CACC · 1-6-2
CACC
1-6-2
0%
▼1
173
Delta St. ★Gulf South · 2-7-1
Gulf South
2-7-1
0%
▼5
174
USC Aiken ★Peach Belt · 3-5-0
Peach Belt
3-5-0
1%
▲7
175
Spring Hill ★Gulf South · 0-5-2
Gulf South
0-5-2
<1%
▲2
176
Barton ★Carolinas · 2-7-1
Carolinas
2-7-1
0%
▲3
177
Salem (WV) ★MEC · 2-6-2
MEC
2-6-2
<1%
▼8
178
Cal Poly Humboldt ★CCAA · 2-5-3
CCAA
2-5-3
0%
▼4
179
Malone ★G-MAC · 2-6-1
G-MAC
2-6-1
0%
▲1
180
Wheeling ★MEC · 3-6-0
MEC
3-6-0
0%
▼2
181
Southwest Baptist ★GLVC · 4-4-2
GLVC
4-4-2
0%
▲5
182
Ohio Dominican ★G-MAC · 1-7-2
G-MAC
1-7-2
0%
–
183
Mount Olive ★Carolinas · 2-7-0
Carolinas
2-7-0
0%
▼7
184
Saint Martin's ★GNAC · 4-6-1
GNAC
4-6-1
<1%
▼1
185
Goldey-Beacom ★CACC · 1-6-2
CACC
1-6-2
<1%
▼1
186
Chaminade ★PacWest · 0-10-0
PacWest
0-10-0
<1%
▲1
187
Walsh ★G-MAC · 1-8-1
G-MAC
1-8-1
0%
▲2
188
Middle Georgia ★Peach Belt · 3-7-1
Peach Belt
3-7-1
<1%
▲6
189
Chestnut Hill ★CACC · 2-6-2
CACC
2-6-2
<1%
▲1
190
California (PA) ★PSAC · 3-4-3
PSAC
3-4-3
0%
▼2
191
Jessup ★PacWest · 2-5-1
PacWest
2-5-1
<1%
▲1
192
Harding ★GAC · 0-10-0
GAC
0-10-0
<1%
▼7
193
Sul Ross St. ★Lone Star · 0-8-0
Lone Star
0-8-0
0%
▼2
194
Jamestown ★Independent · 1-5-3
Independent
1-5-3
0%
▲1
195
West Va. Wesleyan ★MEC · 0-8-1
MEC
0-8-1
0%
▼2
196
Erskine ★Carolinas · 0-8-1
Carolinas
0-8-1
0%
–
197
Daemen ★ECC · 1-7-2
ECC
1-7-2
0%
–
198
Pitt.-Johnstown ★PSAC · 1-6-0
PSAC
1-6-0
0%
–
199
Virginia St. ★Independent · 1-6-1
Independent
1-6-1
0%
▲2
200
Shaw ★Independent · 0-7-0
Independent
0-7-0
0%
–
201
Shorter ★Carolinas · 2-5-0
Carolinas
2-5-0
0%
▼2
202
Adams St. ★RMAC · 1-6-1
RMAC
1-6-1
0%
–
Ranked by median rating. "NCAA" is the share of 1,000 simulations of the rest of the season in which the team is selected for the 40-team field. W-L-D includes games against non-D2 opponents, which the ratings leave out.